Nigeria has emerged as the front-runner in the surge of OPEC oil production for October 2023, as revealed by a Bloomberg survey conducted on November 1.
The survey highlights that Nigeria played a pivotal role in the notable increase in oil production among OPEC nations during October 2023. Most African members of OPEC witnessed slight increments in their crude oil production during the same period.
According to Bloomberg's findings, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) collectively averaged 28.08 million barrels per day in oil production for October. This represents a modest increase of approximately 50,000 barrels per day compared to September 2023.
Specifically, Nigeria led this production surge, closely followed by Congo, Gabon, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea.
OPEC is currently assessing the production capacities of several member countries, which may potentially result in adjustments to their output quotas for the year 2024.
In October, Nigeria raised its output by 60,000 barrels per day, reaching 1.49 million barrels per day, marking the highest production level in nearly two years. Nevertheless, this figure remains below the country's targeted aspirations, raising questions about whether this increase will suffice for a revision in the production quota.
Bloomberg's report underlines Nigeria's expressed desire to elevate its production to previous levels to secure a higher quota.
It's important to note that Nigeria's current crude oil production stands at 1.7 million barrels per day, falling short of its production goals.
The Nigerian oil industry has seen varying perspectives on the factors behind the decline in crude oil production. Some attribute it to rampant crude oil theft, which has allegedly worsened over the years. In contrast, others accuse certain operators and the NNPCL of propagating a false narrative of crude oil theft to justify security contracts awarded to former militants in the Niger Delta region.
Recalling events in September 2023, Nairametrics reported a significant shift in Nigeria's crude oil production over the past 23 years. The data revealed that Nigeria's production reached its peak at 2.5 million barrels per day in 2000 but had dwindled to 1.1 million barrels per day by August 2023.
Throughout the years, there were fluctuations from 2.15 million barrels per day in 2000, reaching a high of 2.52 million barrels per day in 2005, followed by a gradual decline to 1.89 million barrels per day in 2016. Despite minor recoveries in 2017 and 2018, production declined to 1.45 million barrels per day by 2022, dropping further to 972,000 barrels per day in August 2022 due to increased theft.
In 2023, data fluctuated from 1 million barrels per day in April to a peak of 1.26 million barrels per day in March, excluding condensates. In September 2023, the country pumped 1.3 million barrels per day (excluding condensates), according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission.
It's noteworthy that starting from 2024, Nigeria will adopt OPEC's revised oil production quota of 1.38 million barrels per day. However, stakeholders remain optimistic that the country will bridge the gap to meet its production quota before then, possibly leading to a review of the quota by OPEC.
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